LPThe Lilydale Paper

What is the crime rate in Lilydale, Victoria?

What is the crime rate in Lilydale, Victoria?

The Crime Statistics Agency recorded 1,597 offences for the police geography “Suburb/Town Name: Lilydale” in the 12 months ending 31 March 2026. This covers records created from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026.

The agency does not publish an official population-based offence rate for the Lilydale suburb or town geography. Using the 2021 Census population of 17,348 gives an indicative rate of 9,205.8 recorded offences per 100,000 people.

That rate is an estimate, not an official police rate. The offence count comes from 2025 and 2026, while the population comes from the 2021 Census. The Crime Statistics Agency police locality may also have a different boundary from the Australian Bureau of Statistics area used for the population.

The most precise way to report Lilydale’s latest figure is this: the Crime Statistics Agency recorded 1,597 offences under “Suburb/Town Name: Lilydale” during the 12 months ending 31 March 2026. The calculated rate provides context, but it should always be labelled indicative and unofficial.

Which Lilydale crime figure is official?

The official Lilydale figure is the count of 1,597 recorded offences. The selected Crime Statistics Agency resource was released on 18 June 2026 and covers data through 31 March 2026.

The figure counts offences recorded against the Victoria Police and Crime Statistics Agency geography called “Suburb/Town Name: Lilydale.” It does not represent the whole Yarra Ranges Shire, a postcode or a police district.

This distinction matters because broader areas include places outside Lilydale. Their offence totals and population rates answer different questions. A Yarra Ranges Shire rate cannot be renamed Lilydale’s crime rate merely because Lilydale sits within that wider area.

The figure of 9,205.8 per 100,000 is calculated from two published facts:

The calculation follows the standard rate formula described by the Crime Statistics Agency:

Offence count ÷ population × 100,000

For Lilydale, that is:

1,597 ÷ 17,348 × 100,000 = 9,205.8

The arithmetic is sound. The inputs are not matched closely enough for the result to become an official rate. A calculation can be exact while the comparison behind it still has limits.

If you need one figure for a report, use the official count and include its period. Write “1,597 offences were recorded for Suburb/Town Name: Lilydale in the 12 months ending 31 March 2026.” If you include the calculated rate, call it an indicative estimate.

Why is there no official suburb-level rate?

The Crime Statistics Agency recorded-offences tables provide a Lilydale suburb or town count but do not publish an official population-based rate for that locality. Official rates are available for supported larger geographies, but those figures should keep their original labels.

A crime count and a crime rate answer separate questions. A count shows how many offences police recorded for a place and period. A population rate adjusts that count to a common base, usually 100,000 people. The common base can make places with different population sizes easier to compare.

A valid official rate needs a population denominator suited to the same place and reference period. The current Lilydale locality table does not supply that matched rate. Filling the gap with a shire, postcode or district figure would change the place being measured.

Suppose a source labels a number “Lilydale crime rate” but draws it from Yarra Ranges Shire data. That number covers a wider geography. It may be an official rate for the shire, yet it is not an official suburb rate for Lilydale.

The same issue applies to police districts. Police operating areas serve an administrative purpose and may contain several suburbs or towns. Their statistics cannot describe Lilydale alone unless the source provides a separate Lilydale result.

Check these details before accepting any crime statistic:

A source that omits these details does not give enough information for a sound comparison.

How reliable is the indicative rate of 9,205.8?

The indicative rate is useful for understanding scale. It should not be treated as Lilydale’s exact current rate or used for close suburb rankings.

The denominator comes from the 2021 Census QuickStats for Lilydale. The Australian Bureau of Statistics counted 17,348 people in Lilydale and identifies the area as Suburbs and Localities code SAL21504.

The offence count covers 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026. The population snapshot is from 2021. These reference periods do not match. The calculation therefore measures recent recorded offences against an older Census population rather than a population prepared for the crime period.

The geographic definitions may differ too. The Australian Bureau of Statistics uses a statistical Suburb and Locality boundary. The Crime Statistics Agency uses the Victoria Police suburb or town attached to crime records. Similar names do not prove that the two boundaries cover precisely the same area.

These limits cannot be fixed by reporting more decimal places. The “.8” in 9,205.8 comes from the formula. It does not remove uncertainty caused by the older population or the possible boundary mismatch.

The 2021 Census also recorded 7,095 private dwellings in Lilydale, including 6,550 occupied private dwellings in its detailed dwelling table. It reported a median age of 40. These figures help describe the Census snapshot, but they do not measure crime and do not explain why offences were recorded.

Population growth should not be guessed from the supplied figures. There is no matched 2026 Lilydale population in this calculation. Raising or lowering the denominator without a suitable source would create another estimate rather than improve the answer.

Treat 9,205.8 per 100,000 as a scale indicator. Avoid using it to declare that Lilydale ranks above or below another suburb unless both rates use the same period, geographic method, population year and offence definition.

What does “recorded offence” mean?

A recorded offence has a specific meaning in Victorian crime statistics. Under the Crime Statistics Agency glossary and explanatory notes, it is a criminal act or omission punishable under Victorian law that occurred in Victoria, was reported to or detected by Victoria Police, and was first recorded in the Law Enforcement Assistance Program, known as LEAP, during the reference period.

This definition changes how the total should be read. The 1,597 figure is not a count of 1,597 victims. It is not a count of 1,597 offenders. It is also not necessarily 1,597 separate incidents.

One incident can contain multiple offences. For example, a single police matter may generate more than one offence record when more than one alleged offence is identified. The published total counts those offence records under the agency’s method.

Recorded crime also differs from all crime experienced in the community. Some offences are never reported to police. Other offences may not be detected or recorded. Police data can measure what enters the recording system under the stated rules, but it cannot count events that never enter that system.

The date rule needs care as well. Crime Statistics Agency reference periods use the date when a record is created in LEAP. That date may differ from the day when the alleged offence happened or when it was first reported.

For that reason, “offences recorded during the 12 months ending 31 March 2026” is accurate. Saying “offences committed during that year” changes the meaning and may place every event in the wrong time frame.

Reporting and recording practices are part of the statistic. A change in a recorded total does not automatically reveal the cause. It may relate to events experienced, police detection, public reporting or when records entered LEAP. The supplied data does not establish a year-on-year change for Lilydale, so no trend percentage should be claimed from it.

Can this figure tell you whether Lilydale is safe?

The total alone cannot prove that Lilydale is safe or unsafe. It establishes the volume of offences recorded for one police locality during one stated period. For broader context on the area, consider whether Lilydale is a nice place to live. whether Lilydale is a nice place to live

A label such as low, medium or high needs a clear benchmark. Without one, the label reflects an opinion rather than a statistical finding. The comparison also needs data prepared on the same basis.

A sound safety assessment would need to examine offence categories, where records were attached, when they were recorded and how the result compares with suitable areas. The supplied total does not contain an offence-category breakdown, so it cannot show which types account for the number.

Personal exposure matters when a person makes a safety decision, but the locality total does not measure any one resident’s chance of becoming a victim. The denominator calculation also does not turn an offence rate into an individual probability. Offences and people are different units, and one incident can produce several offence records.

Comparisons with Mooroolbark, Kilsyth, Mount Evelyn, Croydon or Ringwood require care. A fair comparison needs each place measured with:

If one source uses suburb counts, another uses postcode data and a third uses an LGA rate, placing their numbers in one ranking produces a weak result. The labels may look comparable while the underlying measures answer different questions.

The newest Crime Statistics Agency locality table is the right starting point for Lilydale. Readers making a personal decision should then look for offence categories and an official historical series prepared for the same geography. Any nearby-suburb comparison should preserve the same method across every place.

How should you quote or compare Lilydale’s crime data?

Use the official figure first and keep its label intact. This avoids turning a transparent count into a false claim of precision.

  1. Quote 1,597 recorded offences for “Suburb/Town Name: Lilydale.”
  2. State the period as 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, or the 12 months ending 31 March 2026.
  3. Describe 9,205.8 per 100,000 as an indicative, unofficial rate based on the 2021 Census population of 17,348.
  4. Note that the population and crime periods differ and that the police locality may not match ABS SAL21504 exactly.
  5. Reject comparisons that substitute a shire, postcode or police district for Lilydale.
  6. Compare nearby suburbs only when their geography, period, denominator and offence definition match.

Actionable takeaway: Use 1,597 as Lilydale’s official recorded-offence count, and never present 9,205.8 per 100,000 without calling it an indicative estimate and stating its timing and boundary limits.